260531-短期偏空震荡,中期宽幅波动
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260531-短期偏空震荡,中期宽幅波动
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核心指标一览
- 指标 当前值 3月31日值 变化 影响
- 国际金价(现货)$4,540/盎司$4,550/盎司-$10 (-0.2%)基本持平
- 国内金价(Au99.99)984.96 元/克1,015 元/克-30 元/克 (-3.0%)⚠️ 回调明显
- VIX 恐慌指数15.3231.05-15.73 (-50.7%)🟢 避险溢价消退
- COMEX 净多单(大额)154,260 手102,236 手+52,024 手🟢 机构
- 重返黄金ETF流向(4月)+$66亿3月创纪录流出大幅逆转🟢 情绪改善
- SPDR 5月持仓变化5月卖出10+吨-再度流出⚠️ 短期压力
- 10年期美债收益率4.45%4.34%+11bp⚠️ 压制金价
- 10年期TIPS2.06%2.01%+5bp⚠️ 实际利率上升
- 美元指数 DXY98.89100.49-1.60🟢 美元走弱
- USD/CNY6.786.91人民币升值 1.9%⚠️ 削弱国内金价
- CTA 信号做空持续(3/24触发)卖出(3/24)持续⚠️ 仍有抛压
核心观点摘要
- 金价从历史高点持续回调
- VIX恐慌指数暴跌50%
- Fed政策预期转鹰
- 短期偏空震荡
- 长期结构性支撑犹存
adbl_web_anon_alc_button_suppression_c
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