The signing was canceled by the president (~30 min before recording) until the SAFE Act passes. Erin shifted from optimistic to skeptical. On the SAFE Act: not a huge win, but the MBA removed several harmful provisions — the 7-year limit on selling build-to-rent homes (which would have frozen that construction market) and a cut to the FHA multifamily limit. Erin's favorite item: the ban on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) through 2030. Other points: a boost to manufactured housing and an expanded appraiser pool (licensed-but-not-certified appraisers can now do FHA appraisals).

The vote: Senate 85-5, House 358-32 (41 not voting). Dan Crenshaw didn't show up to vote. Shout-out to French Hill (House Financial Services Chair) for working with Maxine Waters and defending the House's fixes — they'll likely lose Hill as chair after the midterms.

Private equity: Bloomberg reported a workaround to the 350 single-family-home cap. Big firms (e.g., BlackRock) took an initial hit, but "there's always a way around these things."

The Fed under Warsh — first meeting
Very positive reaction. Discussion of how Greenspan and then Bernanke (with the dot plot) gave too much forward guidance — which, per Chris Whalen, pulls the market away from seeking information and raises black-swan risk. Excitement about the new task forces, especially the balance sheet composition one — Erin thinks it could significantly impact long-term rates and isn't being discussed enough. Main concern: groupthink inside the Fed (24,500 employees, "ivory tower" and progressive profile). They hope Warsh brings in outside experts.

Economy — warning signs

• Danielle DiMartino Booth: 38.4% year-over-year surge in bankruptcies → leading indicator of trouble; a liquidity crisis; the NBER has been derelict in not declaring a recession (they believe one already happened).
• Inflation: Gundlach (DoubleLine) predicts CPI around 3–3.5% in 6 months; Whalen warns of possible double-digit inflation. The hosts land in the middle but lean pessimistic.
• Drivers: Iran war (JCPOA took 2 years; they gave themselves 60 days), Strategic Petroleum Reserve at historic lows, structural damage (fertilizer tied to gas/oil → food prices), growing national debt.
• Jobs: they criticize the labor data — new jobs are temporary/low-skill; layoffs are hitting high-paid roles; WARN numbers look bad.

Why aren't mortgage rates dropping?
Even though oil fell (~mid-$70s from a ~$119 Brent peak), rates won't budge because of: exploding national debt and uncertainty/volatility around the Iran situation. The bond market dislikes both debt and volatility. Whalen's point: the Fed has effectively already raised rates — it's baked into the market. Looming pressure: $8 trillion in debt to refinance this year (at higher levels), plus SpaceX's IPO followed by a big debt issuance.

Real estate side note (WSJ)
Agents are quitting amid the slow market — now in the fourth year of the slowest stretch, with ~4 million single-family homes needed to reach break-even supply. AI is letting some buyers skip realtors entirely, which the hosts are wary of. Erin pushes back on the WSJ's use of a Veterans United study (small sample, tech-savvy vets), citing a Totality study showing more people want a human in the loop than last year. Their take: AI is fine for experienced buyers who've done 30 transactions, but first-time buyers need a good realtor's guidance (water pressure tests, negotiation tactics, neighborhood-specific concessions).

In their first-ever special guest episode, Erin Dee and Jason Baker sit down with Christopher Whalen, Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and one of the sharpest voices in banking and mortgage finance, for an unfiltered conversation on the forces reshaping the industry. Recorded April 1st, the discussion opens with the war in the Gulf and its cascading effects — from diesel and commodity shortages to a looming inflation surge that threatens to undo any hope of rate relief. Whalen warns that mortgage originators who held out for a Fed-driven rate drop may be facing a brutal Q1 and Q2 reckoning.

The conversation digs into MSR valuation, the Fannie/Freddie conservatorship debate (and why Whalen sees almost zero chance of release), gold's resurgence as a reserve asset, and the quiet crisis building inside private equity and private credit — what Whalen bluntly calls "rancid pools of illiquid, opaque assets." He also sounds the alarm on United Wholesale's operating losses and what a non-bank stumble could mean for the broader mortgage market.

Equal parts macro economics and industry-specific candor, this episode is essential listening for anyone navigating the mortgage business in a volatile rate and geopolitical environment.