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Disaster Podcast

Disaster Podcast

By: Jamie Davis Sam Bradley Joe Holley Kyle Nelson
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For Emergency Responders at All LevelsMedicCast Productions, LLC Biological Sciences Hygiene & Healthy Living Physical Illness & Disease Science
Episodes
  • 2026 Hurricane Season Forecast Review

    2026 Hurricane Season Forecast Review
    May 16 2026
    This week on the Disaster Podcast we take a look at the 2026 hurricane forecast put out by several universities, NOAA, and groups like Accuweather. One key variable in predicting the coming season is the presence or absence of El Niño or La Niña in the equatorial region of the central Pacific Ocean. Dan DePodwin, our disaster weather expert breaks down the coming forecast and talks about how global weather and climate patterns impact storm formation half a world away. Dr. Joe Holley joins the discussion as well and we look at the messaging around hurricanes as they approach landfall. The National Hurricane Center recently updated their forecast cone graphic to make it easier to understand. Dan and Joe share their thoughts about the adjustments and about disaster messaging in general. Joe also shares his thoughts about preparedness for the coming season at the local, state, and federal levels. What to know about the new cone graphic: Incorporates all land-based (coastal and inland) tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands;Uses single shading for the entire 5-day outlook cone;Legend depicts symbols for areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are both in effect (represented by diagonal pink and blue lines); andFull and intermediate Tropical Cyclone Advisories are/will be publicly available on hurricanes.gov. NHC will also be introducing a new experimental version of the NHC’s Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone. Since its debut in 2002, the cone has shown where the tropical cyclone’s forecast center is likely to go, based on past forecast calculations. Scroll down for Podcast Discussion Summary Thank you as always to Paragon Medical Education Group for their long-term support of the Disaster Podcast. Dr. Joe Holley and the team at Paragon continue to provide excellent and customized disaster response training to jurisdictions around the U.S. and internationally as well. Podcast Discussion Summary Hurricane Season Forecast Discussion The podcast host Jamie Davis welcomed back Dr. Joe and Dan Depodwin to discuss upcoming weather events, particularly the hurricane season. Dr. Joe shared his upcoming schedule, including a Paragon lab in Florida and the First Care Conference in Fort Lauderdale in early June, which runs alongside the Gathering of the Eagles event. Dan discussed unusual weather patterns in the Northeast, noting chilly conditions in May despite early warm spells, and shared AccuWeather’s forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, predicting 11-16 named storms and 4-7 hurricanes, which is around or slightly below average. He emphasized that even in a below-average season, multiple hurricanes could still impact the United States, using Hurricane Andrew in 1992 as an example. El Nino’s Impact on Hurricanes Dan and Jamie discussed how El Nino and La Nina affect hurricane seasons in the Atlantic Basin. Dan explained that El Nino, characterized by warmer than average water temperatures in the Pacific, typically leads to increased wind shear in the Atlantic, resulting in fewer hurricanes. They noted that while El Nino years generally have fewer storms, they don’t eliminate the possibility of storms. Dan mentioned that current forecasts indicate a strong or potentially record-breaking El Nino developing later in the summer and continuing into the fall. El Niño and Hurricane Season Dan explained that El Niño is driven by weakening easterly winds along the equator in the Pacific Ocean, which reduces cooler water upwelling and leads to warmer ocean temperatures. He noted that hurricanes play a crucial role in transferring energy globally by moving heat from the equator to higher latitudes. Dan emphasized that while this year’s hurricane season may have fewer storms than normal, the warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will continue to fuel storm intensification, making preparation essential during the season running from June 1st to November 30th. Hurricane Preparedness and Response Planning The group discussed hurricane preparedness and response capabilities ahead of the upcoming hurricane season. Joe explained FEMA’s reorganization, noting that while federal response capabilities are effective, there may be variability in state-level preparedness and recovery efforts. The discussion included an analysis of updated National Hurricane Center forecast cone graphics, which now better show inland risks and warning areas. Dan and Joe emphasized the importance of heeding evacuation orders and preparing well in advance of storms, with Joe highlighting the need for experiential training and partnership between federal and state teams. Wrap up and updates The team went through contact information and the team encouraged listeners to stay safe. The group discussed the role of specialized training, with Jamie highlighting the sponsorship of the ...
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    34 mins
  • Sam’s Move to Tornado Alley and Hurricane Messaging Updates

    Sam’s Move to Tornado Alley and Hurricane Messaging Updates
    May 9 2026
    New Look to Forecast Cone Today on the Disaster Podcast, co-host Sam Bradley and I discuss her recent move from Colorado to Missouri. She almost immediately ran into severe weather in the new house and talks about the things she did to improve her preparedness in the face of a change of location. Sam’s experience during the move had a profound impact on her and led her to locate the nearest shelter to their home for storm safety. We also looked at the upcoming hurricane season and discussed a quick overview of the 2026 hurricane forecast. We’ll have a more in-depth discussion with our meteorologists in a coming episode. One interesting topic that came up was the updated messaging from the National Hurricane Center and their cone of forecast track for hurricanes. They implemented new messaging upgrades to the graphic. What to know about the new cone graphic: Incorporates all land-based (coastal and inland) tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands;Uses single shading for the entire 5-day outlook cone;Legend depicts symbols for areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are both in effect (represented by diagonal pink and blue lines); andFull and intermediate Tropical Cyclone Advisories are/will be publicly available on hurricanes.gov. NHC will also be introducing a new experimental version of the NHC’s Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone. Since its debut in 2002, the cone has shown where the tropical cyclone’s forecast center is likely to go, based on past forecast calculations. Scroll down for Podcast Discussion Summary Thank you as always to Paragon Medical Education Group for their long-term support of the Disaster Podcast. Dr. Joe Holley and the team at Paragon continue to provide excellent and customized disaster response training to jurisdictions around the U.S. and internationally as well. Podcast Discussion Summary Hurricane Season Preparation Discussion Sam shared her recent experience moving from suburban Colorado to rural Missouri, including challenges with severe weather, particularly tornado warnings during her drive. The group discussed upcoming hurricane season predictions, noting that while the storm count is projected to be near to below average, the risk remains significant due to potential rapid intensification and elevated early season threats. Jamie emphasized the importance of being prepared for hurricane season by having emergency supplies ready and staying informed through local emergency management centers and weather forecasts. Hurricane Forecast Graphics Updates Jamie and Sam discussed updates to hurricane forecast cone graphics from the National Hurricane Center, which will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, as well as single shading for the entire 5-day cone outlook. Jamie explained that these changes aim to make the information more understandable and help people better assess their risk and evacuation needs. They also discussed the importance of staying informed through apps and alerts, emphasizing the need for immediate action during severe weather events. Weather Updates and Emergency Preparedness Jamie and Sam discussed the impact of constant weather updates and news notifications on public awareness and decision-making. They also talked about military drills, with Sam sharing his experience from a 2015-2016 Urban Shield exercise in Alameda County that involved emergency services training. Sam described how the realistic nature of the exercise surprised some hospital interns who initially viewed it negatively but gained valuable insights during the debriefing. Emergency Response Training Collaboration Sam and Jamie discussed emergency response training, particularly focusing on the evolution of collaboration between police, fire, and EMS teams in active shooter situations. They highlighted the development of training programs like Rescue Task Force and Active Violence Emergency Response Training (AVIRT), which aim to improve coordination and patient care in high-risk scenarios. Jamie mentioned the importance of unified communication systems and the challenges of maintaining effective communication in underground settings. The conversation concluded with plans to discuss recent severe weather trends and hurricane forecasts in a future episode with Dan. Wrap up and updates The team went through contact information and the team encouraged listeners to stay safe. The group discussed the role of specialized training, with Jamie highlighting the sponsorship of the Disaster Podcast by Paragon Medical Education Group. Catch the full episode using the player above or on your favorite podcast platform, and don’t forget to subscribe to the Disaster Podcast for weekly insights from leaders in disaster response and research!
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    31 mins
  • IBHS Supports Research into Hailstorms and Other Disasters

    IBHS Supports Research into Hailstorms and Other Disasters
    Apr 25 2026
    Hail Damage This episode of the Disaster Podcast featured a discussion about resilience and preparedness with guest Jake Sorber from the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety (IBHS). Jake explained IBHS’s research on severe weather hazards, particularly focusing on hail damage and wind-driven hail, which can cause significant additional damage to homes. He described IBHS’s unique ability to manufacture scientific ice spheres to accurately test building materials’ resistance to hail impacts. Becky DePodwin, our disaster emergency management expert joined the discussion along with our episode host, Jamie Davis. Scroll down for Podcast Discussion Summary Thank you as always to Paragon Medical Education Group for their long-term support of the Disaster Podcast. Dr. Joe Holley and the team at Paragon continue to provide excellent and customized disaster response training to jurisdictions around the U.S. and internationally as well. Podcast Discussion Summary Disaster Podcast: Resilience and Preparedness Jamie Davis welcomed listeners to the Disaster Podcast and introduced the topic of resilience and preparedness. He noted that Sam was unavailable due to her recent move, but Becky was present as a guest. Jamie then introduced Jake Sorber, a research project scientist at the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety, who discussed his background in atmospheric science and his current work studying the effects of hail and wind on residential homes and commercial structures. IBHS Structure Testing and Mitigation Jake explained how IBHS, an insurance industry organization, was founded to conduct full-scale testing of structures to better understand vulnerabilities to severe weather events like hurricanes, hail, tornadoes, and wildfires. He described a specific hailstorm in Rock Hill, South Carolina in April 2024 that demonstrated how wind-driven hail can cause damage beyond rooftops, including siding and windows, which can lead to water intrusion and significantly increase losses by 2-4 times. Jake emphasized the importance of identifying “damage amplifiers” – structural elements that fail and cause disproportionate damage, which helps in developing mitigation strategies. Hail Risk and Insurance Insights Jake explained that there is limited historical data on wind-driven hail frequency, and IBHS is developing an instrument to measure impact angles and forces during their annual hail field campaign. He noted that while storm severity has shifted, socioeconomic factors like urban sprawl and increased building costs have had a greater impact on insured losses than weather changes. Jake mentioned that severe convective storms now cause annual losses of $40-60 billion, up from $15 billion historically, primarily due to increased population in hazard areas rather than increased weather risk. Hail-Resistant Building Materials Assessment Jake explained that hail-resistant building materials do exist and are assessed based on IBHS’s testing protocol, which involves simulating hailstorms in a lab. He mentioned that synthetic composite roofs like F-Wave and metal roofs perform well against hail damage, though metal roofs may have cosmetic issues. Jake noted that while some materials like synthetic composites show no damage after multiple hail exposures, the distinction between cosmetic and functional damage is important to consider. Residential Building Weather Resilience Jake from IBHS discussed residential building resilience against severe weather hazards. He explained that while completely hazard-proof homes don’t exist, building materials and construction methods can significantly reduce risk, particularly in high-risk areas like Tornado Alley. Jake described IBHS’s work on developing resilience scores for structures and their unique ability to manufacture hailstones for testing building materials. He also covered wildfire preparedness, emphasizing the importance of defensible space and structure separation. The discussion concluded with information about IBHS resources available at ibhs.org. Wrap up and updates The team went through contact information and the team encouraged listeners to stay safe. The group discussed the role of specialized training, with Jamie highlighting the sponsorship of the Disaster Podcast by Paragon Medical Education Group. Catch the full episode using the player above or on your favorite podcast platform, and don’t forget to subscribe to the Disaster Podcast for weekly insights from leaders in disaster response and research!
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    34 mins
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