Recorded Sunday 8th March – In this episode we examine the energy implications of the escalating Middle East conflict and the dynamics often missing from mainstream coverage.

We explore how energy shocks move through global markets - from shipping insurance and LNG logistics to foreign exchange pressures and electricity system design.

The discussion moves region by region - examining why the impacts differ across Asia, Europe, and the United States, and why some countries may actually accelerate their energy transition during crises.

Key Questions Explored:

Strait of Hormuz and global shipping

• How can shipping disruption occur without a formal blockade?
• What impact do war risk insurance premiums have on tanker economics?
• How large is the cost increase when insurance rises to 1–2% of cargo value?

Shipping logistics and supply disruption

• What are the rerouting options if tankers avoid the Strait of Hormuz?
• How do longer routes affect LNG availability, shipping times, and prices?

Strategic reserves and floating oil storage

• How much oil is currently stored in floating storage at sea?
• How do strategic petroleum reserves function during supply shocks?
• Why has China been building reserves in recent months?

Regional exposure in Asia

• Why might China be exposed but relatively resilient?
• Why are Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam particularly vulnerable?
• Why are Japan and Korea, despite their wealth, among the world’s most exposed energy importers?

Energy security and foreign exchange

• Why are fossil fuel imports effectively a continuous drain on foreign currency reserves?
• How can energy price spikes trigger inflation and balance-of-payments pressures?

• How does importing energy infrastructure differ from importing fuel?

Crisis-driven energy transitions

• How did Cuba expand solar generation during an electricity crisis?
• Why are rooftop solar and batteries spreading rapidly in Pakistan?
• How did Ethiopia’s EV policy emerge partly from foreign currency pressures?

Electricity systems and grid resilience

• Why do electricity grids provide stability that off-grid systems struggle to replicate?
• How did Spain’s limited interconnection with Europe increase blackout risk?

Europe’s gas exposure

• Why do gas-fired power plants often set the marginal electricity price in Europe?
• How can relatively small gas shortages trigger large electricity price spikes?

The United States

• Why is the US relatively insulated from global energy shocks?
• How do higher prices create producer windfalls but consumer pressure?
• Could AI data centres significantly increase US gas demand?