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JP Morgan just called it: zero percent national home price growth in 2026. The same institution that will happily charge you $35 for a $34.87 overdraft looked at the entire American housing market and said flat, nothing, zilch. And honestly? They're probably right. But if you're a buyer in Austin right now, that might actually be the best news you've heard all year.

In this episode, AJ breaks down five stories that are reshaping the Austin housing market right now, from national price data to what's happening neighborhood by neighborhood on the ground here in Central Texas.

What's covered in this episode:

• Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) just reported national home prices are up only 0.7% year over year, down from 3.5% at the start of 2025. Once you adjust for inflation, prices are flat to negative in real terms across much of the country. The "buy anything now before it explodes" story is dead.
• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is sitting right at 6.00% as of March 7th, one full point lower than a year ago but still not the number that unlocks the buyers sitting on the sidelines. What the upcoming Fed meeting means for where rates go from here, and why new construction builder buydowns to the high 4s and low 5s are changing the calculus for Austin buyers right now.
• New listings are down 8.5% nationally but active inventory is up 7.5%. Homes are sitting 8 days longer on market than this time last year. Median listing prices have dropped 2.4% year over year. The leverage shift from sellers to buyers is happening without a recession, without a credit crunch, and without dramatic headlines, which means most buyers don't even know to use it yet.
• JP Morgan's full 2026 housing outlook and what an "extended stall" means for investors running buy and hold, house hacking, and ADU math in the Austin metro. If the base case is flat nominal prices with rents grinding modestly higher, the numbers look different than the headlines suggest.
• Greater Austin has roughly 13,400 active residential listings as of early March. The new listings to pending contracts ratio is running 0.73 to 0.75 against a 25-year average of 0.82. Median sold prices are sitting about 24% below the May 2022 peak. The free fall is over. The correction isn't. And there's a window open right now that won't stay open forever.

Whether you're a first-time buyer trying to time your entry into the Austin market, an investor running numbers on East Austin or South Congress, an agent prepping for client conversations about pricing strategy, or just an Austinite trying to understand what's happening to home values in your neighborhood, this episode gives you the actual data and what it means for your next move.

New episodes drop every weekday morning. Subscribe so you never miss a market update. And if you want to dig into any of this for your specific situation, the link is in the show notes.

Timestamps:

0:01 – Intro: J.P. Morgan Says 0% Home Price Growth in 2026

0:34 – Who Is AJ and What This Show Is About

1:17 – Story 1: National Home Prices Nearly Flat

2:56 – Story 2: Mortgage Rates Stuck Around 6%

4:44 – Story 3: Buyers Are Quietly Gaining Leverage

6:31 – Story 4: J.P. Morgan's 2026 Housing Outlook

7:54 – Story 5: Austin Market Deep Dive

10:39 – Wrap-Up and Call to Action