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Middle East Brief with Avi Kaner

Middle East Brief with Avi Kaner

By: Avi Kaner
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A daily 5-minute intelligence briefing on the Middle East, focusing on what actually matters. Clear analysis, no noise.Avi Kaner
Episodes
  • The IRGC: Iran’s Real Power - Military, Money, and Control
    Apr 5 2026

    To understand how power works in Iran, you have to look beyond the government.

    You have to look at the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC.

    Created after the 1979 revolution, its purpose was not to defend the country. It was to defend the system.

    Today, it operates across multiple layers: internal security, regional operations, and a vast economic network spanning construction, energy, telecommunications, and infrastructure.

    Estimates suggest the IRGC controls or influences tens of billions of dollars in economic activity, with some placing that number well over $100 billion.

    Ownership on paper may be distributed across state companies, religious foundations, and private firms.

    But control is concentrated.

    Those closest to the system benefit most.

    And that structure shapes how power and money flow throughout the country.

    This is not just a military force.

    It is a core pillar of the system.

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    5 mins
  • The Basij Militia: How Iranian Regime Maintains Control - And Where It Can Break
    Apr 4 2026

    To understand how the Iranian regime maintains control, you have to understand the Basij militia.

    Created after the 1979 revolution, the Basij is not just a security force. It is embedded inside society, operating in neighborhoods, universities, and workplaces to monitor, enforce, and deter dissent.

    But what makes it different is visibility.

    In many cases, Iranians know exactly who the Basij are. They are not anonymous. They are neighbors, classmates, and colleagues.

    And the Basij know this.

    That creates a unique dynamic. One that reinforces control in the short term, but introduces pressure over time.

    History shows that systems built on internal control can be highly effective - until they are not.

    From East Germany to Iraq to the Soviet Union, similar structures maintained power for years. But under sustained internal and external pressure, they can weaken quickly as fear erodes, loyalty shifts, and compliance becomes less predictable.

    Recent developments suggest that pressure on Iran’s internal control systems may be increasing.

    This is not just about how the regime maintains control.

    It is about where that control can begin to break.

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    5 mins
  • The Iranian Diaspora and the Push for Regime Change
    Apr 3 2026

    A significant portion of the calls for regime change in Iran are coming from outside the country.

    From the Iranian diaspora.

    There are roughly 4–5 million Iranians living abroad, with even larger numbers when including the second generation. Many left after the 1979 revolution, while others followed during periods of war, repression, and economic decline.

    Today, parts of this global community are among the most vocal advocates for regime change. They organize protests, shape narratives, and influence political conversations across the United States and Europe.

    Overnight, continued crackdowns inside Iran, including arrests of dissidents and expanded internal security presence by the IRGC and the Basij militia, highlight why this sentiment is intensifying.

    This is not just a story inside Iran.

    It is being amplified globally.

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    4 mins
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