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Inside Prediction Markets

Inside Prediction Markets

By: Prediction Market Gurus
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Every week, join two of the world's sharpest bettors and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, as they discuss everything about betting and prediction markets. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 📈 Market Deep Dives 🎙️ Expert Guests 🧠 Strategy Analysis This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Prediction Market Gurus Economics Personal Finance
Episodes
  • The NFL Just Put Prediction Markets on Notice: A Potential Victory For All?
    Apr 1 2026

    The NFL just asked prediction markets to stop listing easily manipulated outcomes — draft picks, announcer mentions, attendance markets — and Chris and Henry think it's actually a good thing. Then: DraftKings is quietly building an AI casino product nobody asked for, and Kalshi just filed to offer margin trading.

    All three stories before they sit down with Jake (@jbets212121), a former accountant who walked away from a stable career less than a year ago to go full time in prediction markets.Jake gets into how he built his operation from scratch — starting with paper hat work and live betting, pivoting to RFQs, and building out a fully functional quoting system in ten days with his developer partner. The conversation covers how he thinks about adverse selection, the top-down vs. origination debate, white labeling as a business model, maker vs. taker fee structures, and what it actually cost him to learn some of his biggest lessons — including a brutal opening day of baseball where flipped spreads and totals nearly wiped out everything he'd built.

    📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.

    @insidepredictionmarkets

    This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

    Chapters:

    0:00 – NFL Sets Boundaries on Prediction Markets

    2:48 – DraftKings Replay: The Product No One Asked For

    5:30 – Kalshi Applies for Margin Trading: What It Actually Means

    6:41 – Introducing Jake (@jbets212121)

    7:10 – How To Go From Accountant to Professional Gambler

    13:38 – Building a Quoting System in 10 Days

    18:20 – Top Down vs. Origination: The Crossroads Decision

    21:03 – Should Exchanges Stay Maker Friendly?

    28:48 – What If Straight Markets Traded via RFQ?

    33:47 – The Most Expensive Mistake He's Ever Made

    #predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

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    38 mins
  • Arizona Just Filed Criminal Charges Against a Prediction Market
    Mar 25 2026

    A state just filed criminal charges against a prediction market for the first time in U.S. history — and that's just where this week starts. Chris and Henry break down Arizona's lawsuit, what it means legally, and why sportsbooks may be quietly pulling the strings. Then: the Polymarket Situation Room's rocky launch, the Schiff-Curtis bill to ban sports markets, AOC piling on, and why a $50 billion industry isn't going anywhere on vibes alone.Then the guys sit down with Egzee — one of the largest individual market makers in Prediction Markets and the most talked-about intern in prediction markets history. He breaks down how he got started flipping cards in MLB The Show, spotted the same mechanics on election night, and built it into a serious operation — plus the creator ID debate, the originating vs. top-down argument, and what it really takes to survive as competition heats up.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting Chapters:0:00 – Arizona Sues a Prediction Market2:00 – The Polymarket Situation Room3:00 – The Bill That Could Kill Sports Betting on Prediction Markets9:05 - Egzee Joins the Show9:35 – How a Video Game Led to Making Generational Money11:50 – Egzee's BIG EDGE15:00 – Origination is Overrated18:25 – The Creator ID Debate23:30 – Are Sharp Takers Slowly Killing the Ecosystem?

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    38 mins
  • Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky on Why Prediction Markets Will Win
    Mar 18 2026

    Prediction markets are exploding — and Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky is right in the middle of it.In this episode of Inside Prediction Markets, we sit down with Jacob to break down how Novig went from a scrappy startup to a serious player in the space, why prediction markets are starting to compete with sportsbooks, and what the future of betting might actually look like.We also get into the moment Novig actually felt like it might work, why most betting markets are inefficient and where the real edge is, the betting strategy that got Jacob limited early on, how prediction markets could reshape sports betting entirely, and advice for founders looking to build in this space.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.0:00 How Jacob Fortinsky Started Novig3:43 Regulation, CFTC & Longevity9:38 When Novig Started Feeling “Real”14:48 The Future of Prediction Markets17:39 Infrastructure is King23:30 The Power of Ball Knowledge25:20 Being Limited with Jacob Fortinsky29:17 Politics Market Inefficiencies#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

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    32 mins
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