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MLB Daily Delta

MLB Daily Delta

By: Aaron Jolly
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Summary

MLB Daily Delta is your daily fantasy baseball playbook, delivering box score breakdowns,

waiver wire gems, and streaming targets to help you dominate your fantasy baseball league.

Join host Aaron Jolly every day for actionable insights that win matchups.

 Baseball & Softball
Episodes
  • Devers Giants Debut + Dodgers Spiral + Ben Rice HR

    Devers Giants Debut + Dodgers Spiral + Ben Rice HR
    May 13 2026
    Monday's fantasy baseball roundup features Rafael Devers' instant-impact Giants debut, the Dodgers spiraling out of first place, Ben Rice breaking out of his slump with a home run, Andres Gimenez's 2-HR night, and Michael Soroka's shutout performance. Devers: 2-for-3 with HR off Roki Sasaki in Giants debut. Skills were never gone. Dodgers: 8 losses in 12 games, fell out of 1st place. Ohtani struggling, Vesia first blown save. Dynasty question: sell before market wakes up? Ben Rice: 2-run HR snapped 0-for-13 slump. Mechanical fixes, not underlying collapse. Hold everywhere. Gimenez: 2 HR, 5 RBI night. 6 HR, 23 RBI on season with .934 OPS with RISP. Rays: 27-13 (15-2 in last 17). Caminero 10 HR, Baker 10 saves. Undervalued assets. Soroka: 6.1 IP shutout vs Texas. 5-2, 3.53 ERA with xERA/FIP backing it up. Redemption story complete. Closers: Vesia still closer but Dodgers spiraling. Bednar shaky yellow flag. Helsley (Orioles) on IL, Rico Garcia closing. J-Rod: 2-run HR (104.8 mph EV). Munoz 8 saves, 2.10 ERA. Three takeaways: 1) Dodgers in trouble 2) Rays undervalued 3) Diamondbacks sneaky good. AARON JOLLY MLB Daily Dynasty May 12, 2026 Keywords: Rafael Devers, Giants debut, Dodgers spiral, Alex Vesia, blown save, Ben Rice, home run, Andres Gimenez, 2 HR 5 RBI, Rays 27-13, Michael Soroka, shutout, Coby Mayo, Julio Rodriguez, David Bednar, fantasy baseball, waiver wire, May 12 2026
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    11 mins
  • MURAKAMI SOLO HR LEADER (17!) + Elder's ACE Transformation + Diaz GONE 60 Days + Rays HEATING UP

    MURAKAMI SOLO HR LEADER (17!) + Elder's ACE Transformation + Diaz GONE 60 Days + Rays HEATING UP
    May 11 2026
    Monday's fantasy baseball roundup is PACKED with dynasty-altering news. **MURAKAMI TAKES SOLO HOME RUN LEAD** Munetaka Murakami hit his 17th home run Sunday, pulling ahead of Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber in the MLB home run race. This isn't a hot streak — it's a superstar arriving. • 17 HR in 41 games (on pace for 47) • 22.3% barrel rate (98th percentile) • 97.1 mph avg exit velocity • 64% hard-hit rate • First-round asset in EVERY format going forward The ADP conversation around Murakami entering 2026 was absurd. He's a cornerstone. Buy at current price or regret it all season. **BRYCE ELDER: THE ACE TRANSFORMATION** Five and two-thirds innings. ONE HIT allowed. ZERO earned runs. Eight strikeouts. His season ERA drops to 1.81 through 9 starts. Context matters: Elder posted a 6.52 ERA in 2024 and 5.30 in 2025. The red flags were REAL. But his pitch mix evolution — specifically a new cutter and improved changeup tunneling — has completely transformed what hitters see. • 3.8% barrel rate allowed (league avg: 7.6%) • Slider: 35.7% whiff rate • Cutter: mid-30s chase rate vs RHH • xERA: 2.90 (will improve after Sunday's gem) He's a process-backed, analytically supported ace pitching for the best team in the NL. The buy window is closing. **EDWIN DIAZ: 60-DAY IL SHOCKER** Dodgers transferred Edwin Diaz to the 60-day IL. He was already on the 15-day with an elbow issue, but this move rules him out until at least mid-July — realistically late July. Alex Vesia is LOCKED IN as Dodgers closer for the entire first half: • Sub-2.00 ERA in closer role • Slider: 43% whiff rate • 95-97 mph velo • Dodgers win close games + run support Vesia is not a streamer. He's a must-roster closer in all formats. **DRAKE BALDWIN: BUY HIGH, PAY THE PRICE** Baldwin hit his 10th home run Sunday and is now batting .297 with a .401 xwOBA and 158 wRC+. His plate discipline (14% BB rate, 24% chase rate) fuels everything. Ten home runs by mid-May on a 22-year-old catching-eligible hitter is NOT a hot streak. It's a player arriving. If you can acquire him at preseason ADP, you're stealing value. **RAYS: MOST UNDERRATED TEAM IN BASEBALL** Tampa Bay won again. 14 wins in their last 16 games. 26-13 overall. • Junior Caminero: 10 HR, 14.1% barrel rate in May, launch angle jumped from 10.2° to 15.6° • Bryan Baker: 10 saves, 2.30 ERA, 9-0 record. Locked closer on winning team. • Rotation steady all season. Bullpen one of best in AL. Unlike Yankees/Braves, Rays are flying under market radar. Baker. Caminero. Shane McClanahan when he returns. The Rays window in your league is RIGHT NOW. **BEN RICE SLUMP: DON'T PANIC** Rice went 0-for-13 vs Brewers. But he just returned from a bruised hand. Hitters need 10-15 games to regain feel. Statcast shows his barrel rate didn't drop — launch angle and pull-side contact broke down. Those are mechanical and self-correct. Hold in dynasty. Keep in lineup for redraft. **CLOSER WATCH** • David Bednar: Second blown save, 3/5 conversion rate over 2 weeks. Monitor weekly, don't panic. • Yankees using Michael Tonkin & Ian Hamilton in high-leverage. Situation to watch. **THREE BIG TAKEAWAYS** 1. Braves are operating at different level — Elder (1.81 ERA), Baldwin (10 HR), Sale (6-1, 1.59 ERA), Acuna returning soon. Most dominant fantasy roster in baseball. 2. HR race is 3-way conversation now — Murakami (17), Judge (16), Schwarber (16). Murakami has best barrel rate/EV. Own 2+ to win HR category. 3. Rays are undervalued — 26-13, 14-2 in last 16, assets still available below market price. Episode covers ALL Sunday games plus waiver wire targets and streaming options. AARON JOLLY MLB Daily Dynasty May 11, 2026 Keywords: Munetaka Murakami, 17 home runs, home run leader, Bryce Elder, 1.81 ERA, ace transformation, Edwin Diaz, 60-day IL, Alex Vesia, Dodgers closer, Drake Baldwin, 10 home runs, Rays 26-13, Junior Caminero, Bryan Baker, Ben Rice, fantasy baseball, waiver wire, May 11 2026
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    13 mins
  • 103.6 MPH! Misiorowski Makes HISTORY (Shutout Yankees) + Lockridge IL + Guardians 3 Assets

    103.6 MPH! Misiorowski Makes HISTORY (Shutout Yankees) + Lockridge IL + Guardians 3 Assets
    May 9 2026
    Friday night made baseball history. Jacob Misiorowski threw the fastest pitch ever recorded by a starting pitcher in the Statcast era — 103.6 mph — and he did it TEN TIMES. The Brewers right-hander threw 41 pitches at 100+ mph while shutting out the Yankees 6-0. Six innings. Eleven strikeouts. Two hits. Two walks. Let that sink in. His stat line is absurd: • Fastball averages 99.3 mph • K-rate: 38.1% (99th percentile) • Whiff rate: 39.8% • xERA: 2.90 • Fastball spin percentile: 99th The extension percentile — meaning hitters are seeing his heater later than any starter alive — is also 99th. That is an unfair combination. His walk rate (9.7%) needs to tighten, but he's already elite at missing bats. If he's somehow available in shallow 12-team redrafts, add him immediately. In dynasty formats, he's a decade-long cornerstone. Not a sell-high. The other side of that game — Brandon Lockridge carted off with a deep laceration down to the bone after crashing into unpadded concrete. Manager Pat Murphy said "it's going to be a while." Lockridge was batting .290 with 12 RBIs and 5 steals. This opens playing time for Jackson Chourio (42 HR power, 21 years old). Dynasty managers: stash Chourio now. Yankees were completely shut down — Max Fried took the loss, giving up 5 ER in 6 IP. But Misiorowski is not just anyone. Guardians system taking forward steps: • Travis Bazzana hit first career HR (427 feet). After 0-for-12 start, he's 6-for-18 with 6 SB since May 2nd (best in MLB over that stretch). Do not sell low. • Parker Messick excellent again: 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks. Now 4-0 with 2.30 ERA. Most undervalued starter in your format. Deep dive coming. • Cade Smith: 11th save (allowed run but closed it). Now sole MLB saves leader. Locked in on winning team. Roster everywhere. Dylan Cease outstanding: 7 IP, 0 BB, 10 Ks vs Angels. Third double-digit K game in 8 starts. Zero walks in 7 innings is different level of command — historically his knock. First-round fantasy asset now. Buy in trade if you can. Yordan Alvarez watch: 13th HR (115.9 mph EV). Hitting .324 with 1.08 OPS. Statcast reads like sci-fi — 94.3 mph avg EV, 18.2% barrel rate, .756 xSLG. On 29-HR pace. If Astros lineup stabilizes, second half could be historic. Buy at current price. Michael McGreevy: 6 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks. 2.52 ERA on season. 24-year-old looking like legit #2 starter. Solid streaming option vs weaker lineups, permanent spot in 15+ team formats. Closer race: Cade Smith (11 saves) now outright leader. Miller and O'Brien stuck at 11 after Padres/Cardinals didn't get save chances Friday. Phillies trouble: Jesus Luzardo imploded (5 runs, 0 outs in 4th). Painter at 6.89 ERA. Keller unreliable (3 saves, 2 losses). Offense clicking (Schwarber 13th HR, Crawford emerging, Harper 4 times on base), but pitching must stabilize. Three takeaways: 1. Misiorowski is REAL. 38% K-rate, sub-3 xERA, fastest fastball ever, 24 years old. Dynasty cornerstone. 2. Guardians building best young core fantasy isn't pricing correctly: Bazzana, Messick, Smith. Three first-round assets on one team. 3. Phillies ceiling problem if pitching doesn't stabilize. Offense is there under Mattingly, but rotation/bullpen concerning. AARON JOLLY MLB Daily Dynasty May 9, 2026 Keywords: Jacob Misiorowski, 103.6 mph, fastest pitch ever, shutout Yankees, Brandon Lockridge IL, Jackson Chourio, Travis Bazzana, Parker Messick, Cade Smith, Dylan Cease, Yordan Alvarez, fantasy baseball, waiver wire, dynasty, May 9 2026
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    10 mins
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