On this episode of STRAT, retired Marine intelligence officer Hal Kempfer examines emerging signs of a potential shift in U.S. policy toward the Russia-Ukraine war following developments at the G7 summit. He analyzes battlefield trends, Ukrainian deep-strike operations, Russian territorial setbacks, and the growing impact of drone warfare on modern conflict. The discussion explores reports of increasing pressure on Russia’s military logistics, infrastructure, and political leadership, while highlighting concerns among Russian elites about the long-term sustainability of the war. Kempfer also reviews recent diplomatic activity involving President Trump, President Zelensky, and European leaders, assessing whether Washington may be moving toward stronger support for Ukraine. Additionally, he considers how the recent Iran conflict, sanctions policy, and broader geopolitical dynamics involving China, Europe, and NATO could influence future U.S. strategic decisions. This episode offers a detailed strategic risk assessment of one of the world’s most consequential conflicts.

Takeaways:

• Evidence suggests Russia has lost battlefield momentum
• Ukraine’s deep-strike drone campaign is increasingly targeting critical Russian infrastructure.
• Russian territorial gains have stalled, while some areas show measurable losses.
• Drone warfare accounts for the majority of battlefield casualties.
• Russian logistics networks are facing growing disruption from Ukrainian attacks.
• Reports indicate rising frustration among Russian political and business elites.
• G7 discussions may signal a shift toward more US support for Ukraine.
• Broader geopolitical considerations involving Iran, China, and Europe are influencing U.S. strategic calculations

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