ASPI this week released our Cost of Defence report which, as always, has taken a thorough and rigorous look at every dollar spent on defence in the budget. And to help us make sense of the $66.4 billion that Australia will be spending, we’re joined by our director of defence strategy, Mike Hughes.

Mike is one of the report’s main authors along with Marc Ablong, Courtney Stewart and Linus Cohen. Their conclusion, in sum, is that Australia is “buying a future and is doing so by accepting that the ADF will be able to do less today”.

Mike puts the dollars in context, welcoming the lift in spending but describing a program of approvals and spending that remains too slow. He explains the mismatch between rhetoric that the strategic environment is dire and getting worse, and reality is that the corresponding urgency isn’t there in the investment.

He talks about Australia’s recent spending growth compared with other countries in the region including China, and the welcome boost to workforce but the decline in acquisition and sustainment spending, which will be an issue for the current force. He also walks us through the byzantine ways of calculating spending as a percentage of GDP and, most importantly, what actually needs to be done now, such as approving money for integrated air and missile defence and the so-called connective tissue that ensures readiness.

Links:

Read the cost of Defence: ASPI Defence budget brief 2026-2027 here

Yalkun Uluyol, China researcher at Human Rights Watch, joins us to discuss the repression of Uyghurs and other minority groups in China — and why human rights abuses are struggling to stay on the global agenda.

Yalkun has spent years documenting abuses in Xinjiang, including mass surveillance, arbitrary detention, forced labour and the suppression of Uyghur identity and culture. He also brings a deeply personal perspective: his own father has been arbitrarily jailed.

The conversation explores how the Chinese government is trying to reshape China’s global image, portraying Xinjiang as stable and harmonious despite extensive reporting by Human Rights Watch and others. Yalkun also discusses Beijing’s influence in international institutions, the intimidation of other countries, and the growing difficulty of conducting China research.

At a time when wars, economic shocks, great-power competition and artificial intelligence dominate global attention, Yalkun makes the case for why human rights advocacy still matters — and how governments, researchers and citizens can keep these issues in view.

The episode also looks at forced labour in Xinjiang and its links to global supply chains, from batteries to Labubu dolls.

Benedikta von Seherr-Thoß is Managing Director for Peace, Security and Defence at the European External Action Service—the European Commission’s diplomatic arm. As the EEAS official responsible for bringing to life the recently signed EU-Australia Strategic and Defence Partnership, Benedikta visited Canberra and Sydney this week for talks with Australian officials.

Benedikta joined us to talk about the partnership, about why Europe and Australia need to work more closely together given the very global nature and impact of security threats, and about the US-Europe relationship, the war in Ukraine and the implications of it all the Indo-Pacific, notably Taiwan.

Europe is embarked on a generational project to rearm, with big increases to defence budgets and an outreach to likeminded parts around the world in the face of the threat from Russia and Donald Trump’s scepticism about helping with European security. Benedikta shares her views on Australian companies’ access to the large buckets of funding such as the Security Action for Europe or SAFE mechanism, and the reforms underway for a more coordinated European defence industry and better procurement processes.

Links:

The Australia-European Union Security and Defence Partnership

Read Bart Hogeveen’s explainer on the EU–Australia Security and Defence Partnership

Last week saw the summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing. It was dominated by trade and investment.

Ahead of the summit we spoke to Matt Turpin, who was director for China in the White House National Security Council during Trump’s first term.

Matt, a former Army officer and now a senior advisor at Palantir Technologies and visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, talked about what to expect from the visit but, more importantly, provided his perspective on the underlying shifts in the US-China economic relationship and the long-term trends that will dominate international trade for the years to come.

Washington’s move away from pushing Beijing to adhere to fair and rules-based trade, towards what’s known as “managed trade”, is exemplified by a proposal for a Board of Trade which Matt explains. He lays out a way forward for rule-abiding countries to trade with one another while diversifying away from China.

Matt discusses the debate about whether to decouple or derisk and explains his idea of disentanglement between the US and China for sensitive materials and technologies. This interview is a must-listen for anyone interested in economic security, global trade and the impact of great power competition on all nations.

Check out Matt’s Substack at https://chinaarticles.substack.com/

Today on Stop the World, ASPI executive director Justin Bassi and David Wroe talk about Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit to Australia and the latest news in artificial intelligence.

Japan is one of Australia’s closest friends—and the friendship is deepening. Justin and David talk about the significance of the relationships amid global geopolitical turmoil. Takaichi is leading her country through the next phase in its strategic renewal, with big plans to grow Japan’s critical technology and defence industries, and a more muscular posture in the region as it faces Chinese assertiveness.

They discuss the economic security declaration signed by Takaichi and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese; ASPI’s new report calling for a look at Japanese submarines to fill any potential capability gap in the AUKUS optimal pathway; and the significance of the Mogami frigate agreement.

Finally they discuss the news that the Trump administration is considering reviewing new AI models before they can be released in a major reversal of its low-regulation stance. That move follows the revelation that leading AI company Anthropic withheld its latest model Mythos because it is such a powerful tool for hackers.

Why should we care about the Indo-Pacific? It’s a question sufficiently packed with vitality that Ray Powell and Jim Carouso have for the past two years devoted a weekly podcast to finding the answers.

Ray, a former US Air Force Colonel posted as Defence Attache in Canberra, and Jim, longtime diplomat who served as Charge d’Affaires to Australia, join STW this week to unravel all the ways the Indo-Pacific region remains the strategic keystone that is likely to shape the course of the 21st century.

We cover a lot of ground—the future of US strategy in the Indo-Pacific and what that means for America’s friends and allies; Donald Trump’s upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping; China’s project to become the regional hegemon and what that means for the many other countries that call the Indo-Pacific home.

Ray and Jim also share their thoughts on Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit to Australia next week, opportunities for economic security cooperation, deepening partnerships with other key Indo-Pacific nations such as the Philippines; the ongoing risks in the South China Sea and the nomination of former Congressman David Brat as US Ambassador to Australia.

Ray and Jim have spent most of their careers focussed on the Indo-Pacific region. And their level headed, calm, excellent judgement comes through in this conversation.

Watch Ray and Jim’s podcast here: https://www.youtube.com/@IPPodcast

Critical minerals and rare earths are atomic marvels — and geopolitical nightmares. They’re vital in high-end technologies including defence equipment but are traded in markets that are all but broken, with China dominating overwhelming shares of production.

This week, Madeleine King, Minister for Resources and Minister for Northern Australia, joins Stop the World to talk about the challenges Australia and its international friends face in building some kind of functioning market to ensure we don’t face supply crises that could threaten our economies or security.

Speaking from the sidelines of ASPI’s third annual Darwin Dialogue on critical minerals, Madeleine talks about the failure of the market, the need for intervention, what connected supply chains will look like in the future, the kinds of cooperation Australia is pursuing with Japan, the United States, Korea, Canada and Europe, and the vital importance of trust. She discusses China’s own highly interventionist approach that enabled it to dominate the market, Australia’s own strengths, global trends towards resource and economic nationalism, and the wake up call last year when China forced a partial tariffs backdown from the US by threatening to cut off vital critical minerals supplies.

ASPI’s head and deputy head of defence strategy, Mike Hughes and Courtney Stewart, join us to dissect Australia’s new National Defence Strategy and Integrated Investment Plan.

It’s the right strategy, but is there enough money, even with the welcome boost? And how does Australia become operationally self-reliant without chasing the fool’s dream of self-sufficiency?

Mike and Courtney share their views on the changing strategic environment, the US alliance, the state of the region, and new capability priorities such as drones and integrated air and missile defence. We also discuss the lessons from Ukraine and Iran, the importance of defending our interests well beyond our shores, and the all-important question of AUKUS.

These are among the biggest questions facing Australia, and Mike and Courtney are among the best brains around to help you digest this busy week.

Read more analysis on the NDS by ASPI staff: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/2026-national-defence-strategy-views-from-aspi-analysts/

Read a new report 'Light speed weapons? Directed energy and the future of the ADF': https://www.aspi.org.au/report/light-speed-weapons-directed-energy-and-the-future-of-the-adf/

For regular updates on defence and security across the Indo-Pacific, subscribe to ASPI's Fault Lines digest on Substack: https://aspidefence.substack.com/