If you've been watching commercial real estate content online lately, something probably feels off – and in this episode, I'll tell you exactly why.

There are three types of people dominating the conversation right now, and each one is giving you a distorted picture of the market. The first is the seasoned operator acting like the last five years never happened: no distress, no pressure, no problem. The second is the newer player with $30 or $50 million in transactions who's convinced that makes them the master of the universe. And the third is the straw man – the one who points to everything going wrong over there so you'll think everything is going right over here.

None of these perspectives are giving you the full picture.

The reality is this: interest rates skyrocketed in 2022 and have stayed elevated. Insurance costs doubled or tripled in major markets. Wages went up. The 10-year Treasury is higher today than it was six months ago. The Fed isn't cutting anytime soon. And the Iran conflict is keeping energy prices – and inflation – elevated in ways that change the math on deals across the board.

But here's what's also true: distressed properties are starting to come into the market. We're talking 35, 40, even 50% below today's stabilized value. That window is opening, and over the next 12 to 24 months, it's going to widen.

The investor who understands what's real, what's noise, and what is the one who's going to be positioned to act on it.

This episode breaks down how to think through all of it.

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