Greetings from Mexico!
In this episode, we dive deep into a fascinating new metric called the Compute Heat Rate (CHR) and explore its potentially profound implications for the future of electricity prices and the power grid
.
With the explosive growth of AI, power grids are facing unprecedented demands. For example, Texas's ERCOT grid operator recently projected that load could max out at a staggering 319,650 megawatts by 2030, driven largely by data centers
. We are already seeing the impact in markets like PJM, where data load growth has blown up capacity revenues to the tune of an estimated $23 billion in costs over the next three years
.
But what happens to the actual energy prices? That is what the CHR attempts to answer by asking: at what price would data centers elect NOT to consume power?
Introduced by industry veteran Hans Royal, the CHR measures the maximum electricity price a data center operator can rationally pay before their computing tasks become uneconomic
. Because AI creates enormous economic value, these data centers are incredibly inflexible and willing to pay massive premiums for power
. While traditional large loads like steel or aluminum producers will typically shut down when prices hit $40 to $120 per megawatt hour
, Royal estimates that AI data centers have a blended CHR of approximately 6,350permegawatthour
.Forhighlycritical,just−in−timeAIinferenceservices,theymightnotcurtailpoweruntilpriceshitover∗∗53,000 per megawatt hour**!
Watch to learn more about:
The massive gap between AI load forecasts and grid realities
.
Why regulators are demanding "Flex Mosaic" and load-shifting capabilities from data centers
.
The difference between Large Language Model (LLM) training loads and peaky inference loads
.
How the incredible power density of new tech—like the Nvidia Rubin architecture, where a fridge-sized box uses the power of 65 households—could price regular consumers out of the market
.
If these data centers refuse to curtail power at any normal wholesale price, we could see massive localized demand supply imbalances
. Watch now to understand the new metric tracking this emerging grid crisis

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