As pivotal elections approach in the United States, Brazil, and Ethiopia, global businesses are navigating a rapidly evolving landscape of risks and opportunities. In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence experts John Raines (Head of North America Country Risk), Rafael Amiel (Head of Latin America Economics), and Jordan Anderson (Principal Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk) to examine how political outcomes through 2026 will influence government stability, economic policy, and geopolitical risk well into 2027 and beyond.

Listeners will gain exclusive insights into potential market volatility as the panel explores the implications of the U.S. midterms, Brazil's presidential race, and Ethiopia's general elections. The discussion covers how shifting political dynamics may impact trade, supply chains, regulatory frameworks, and fiscal strategies—key considerations for multinational corporations and investors.

Key topics include:

• Election outlooks in the U.S., Brazil, and Ethiopia and their impact on government stability
• Fiscal and monetary policy risks in Brazil and the U.S.
• Geopolitical and security risks in Ethiopia, including implications for regional stability and foreign investment
• Trade negotiations and the strategic role of commodities in Brazil's foreign policy
• Key indicators to monitor ahead of major elections for early risk detection

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Geopolitical Risk Brief: April 2026
• Russia-Ukraine War: Three Conflict Development Pathways in the Next 12 Months
• Click here to subscribe to our Geopolitical and Economic Risk Monthly newsletter

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Global Executive Summary: Conflict-related economic fallout to continue
• Middle East war
• Currency outlooks

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guests: John Raines, Rafael Amiel, Jordan Anderson
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence economist Yan Hoong for an outlook on the electronics and semiconductor landscape through 2026—taken from a March 12 client webinar.

Yan explains why memory remains a big source of procurement and pricing anxiety, with tightness persisting in both advanced and conventional memory as suppliers shift capacity toward higher-end products. Yan unpacks how this constraint is already spilling into downstream categories like computers and communications equipment, and why price pressure could linger until new capacity meaningfully comes online in late 2027 to 2028.

The conversation also broadens beyond AI hype: while AI and data centers continue to pull demand (especially for high-bandwidth memory and advanced DRAM), Yan points to a gradual recovery in the broader electronics cycle, with mixed signals across end markets. Aerospace and defense and AI-led infrastructure stand out as growth areas, while consumer electronics and automotive remain softer, reinforced by slowing light vehicle production and divergent PMI new order trends.

Finally, Yan breaks down the January 2026 Section 232 tariff announcement, outlining how its pricing impact on US semiconductors may be limited due to narrow scope and broad exemptions for domestic use, with exposure more concentrated in re-export pathways. The episode closes by connecting pricing dynamics across regions—highlighting how memory-heavy supply chains are driving sharper producer price escalation in places like South Korea—while legacy components remain comparatively stable.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Electronics Supply Chain Outlook
• Click here for our special report on the impact of the Middle East war on commodity prices
• Click here to access our webinar on powering AI infrastructure in a volatile world
• Subscribe to our Supply Chain Essentials newsletter.

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Commodity Price Watch Monthly (full report)
• Purchasing Environment
• US tariff plans

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guest: Yan Hoong
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In the first episode of season 6 of The Decisive podcast, S&P Global Market Intelligence's Jason Kaplan unpacks why 2026 is shaping up as a "risk-on" commodities environment—with steady but subdued global growth, rising volatility, and a deepening flight to safety that's pushing risk premiums across key markets.

Jason, a senior economist in the Pricing and Purchasing team, connects macroeconomic signals to real-world pricing and trade flows, including how tariffs and regionalization are re-splitting markets after years of prices moving in lockstep. With a year of tariff data now visible, Jason details how Section 232-era aluminum tariffs and downstream copper-product tariffs are showing up in U.S. prices, collapsing imports, and widening regional differentials—with a caveat that the full cost burden for U.S. manufacturers may still be ahead.

On the metals side, the episode dives into copper's structurally tight supply picture, the unique stress points in aluminum's midstream, and the U.S. Midwest premium, plus what's driving turning points in nickel, tin, and zinc.

Finally, recorded just as geopolitical tensions escalated, Jason discusses why the published forecast does not yet fully incorporate the Iranian conflict—and what could change as updated macro assumptions are released, including particular sensitivity for Gulf-linked aluminum supply risks.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Commodity Price Watch Monthly: March 2026
• US resin shippers look to tap new customers amid Iran war
• Click here to subscribe to our Supply Chain Essentials newsletter.

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Commodity Price Watch Monthly (full report)
• Purchasing Environment
• US tariff plans

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guest: Jason Kaplan
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun