Episodes

  • IL48: The Misunderstood Economics of Africa ft. Joe Studwell
    Apr 29 2026
    In this episode Kevin Coldiron is joined by bestselling author Joe Studwell who speaks about his new book How Africa Works: Success and Failure on the World’s Last Development Frontier. We discuss why many of our perceptions about Africa are wrong - why one big problem has been too few people, not too many and why the continent isn’t as resource-rich as we think. Joe talks us through some surprising success stories - like Rwanda’s emulation of Singapore and Botswana’s success in avoiding “the resource curse”. This is the time to begin researching and understanding the opportunities in a continent that has more land mass than the US, China and India combined and will eventually be home to the majority of the world’s young people.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Joe on LinkedIn and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:01 - Introduction to the episode and guest02:04 - Why the book was written and initial motivation05:50 - Outsider perspective and reactions in Africa07:22 - The core idea: population density and development08:22 - Why Africa’s growth lagged historically14:23 - Population growth and changing economic potential15:39 - Colonialism in Africa vs Asia20:14 - Land, agriculture, and development differences23:55 - Rise of private sector and food production25:57 - Resources and the limits of extractive growth29:56 - Botswana and managing resource wealth36:21 - Rwanda’s development model and governance44:41 - Ethnic dynamics and future stability50:24 - China’s role and manufacturing potential56:04 - Investing in Africa and long term outlookCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hr and 1 min
  • SI397: The Market Isn’t Free Anymore, It’s Being Managed ft. Cem Karsan
    Apr 25 2026
    Today Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen examine a market environment where politics, geopolitics and liquidity are becoming harder to separate. Cem argues that recent market strength is not just a reaction to better news, but part of a broader effort to manage risk, support collateral values and prepare for deeper geopolitical stress. From rising military spending and the Strait of Hormuz to treasury demand, QIS growth, AI and the next inflation wave, this conversation is about what happens when markets stop being passive observers and become tools in a larger strategic contest.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00:01 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged00:00:35 - Niels and Cem reconnect and set the stage00:01:51 - Truth, narratives and the blurring of reality00:04:15 - Fed independence, politics and credibility00:07:45 - The rise of QIS and demand for alternative strategies00:12:52 - Trend following update and current market performance00:15:23 - Framing the disconnect between markets and reality00:20:09 - Liquidity, market rallies and strategic positioning00:25:08 - Are markets being actively managed00:34:51 - The real geopolitical battle and the role of China00:40:32 - What investors may be underpricing00:52:55 - Why markets can rise despite growing risks00:55:56 - Treasury demand, intervention and future policy paths00:58:04 - Inflation, debt monetization and long term outlook01:02:16 - AI, deflation and the political responseCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hr and 12 mins
  • UGO11: Fiscal Dominance, Dollar Power, and the Politics Driving Markets ft. Lyn Alden
    Apr 22 2026
    Today, Cem Karsan sits down with Lyn Alden for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces quietly shaping markets beneath the surface. From the persistence of fiscal dominance to the role of populism, demographics, and global power shifts, they explore why the current macro regime may be far harder to reverse than many expect. The discussion moves beyond economics into politics, examining how inequality, globalization, and technological change feed into inflation dynamics and policy decisions. They also tackle the future of the dollar, the risks to its global dominance, and the complex role of crypto in a system defined by power, incentives, and control.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction to the episode and trading floor setting00:01:28 - Cem introduces Lyn Alden and frames the macro discussion00:02:23 - Lyn outlines her framework and the rise of fiscal dominance00:05:31 - Multipolar world and shifting reserve currency dynamics00:06:20 - Why debt cycles lead to persistent fiscal expansion00:13:42 - Debate on debt, modern monetary theory, and dollar privilege00:18:29 - Populism, inequality, and political drivers of inflation00:24:25 - Trade deficits, globalization, and domestic consequences00:30:20 - What happens if dollar dominance weakens00:34:16 - Comparing today to the 1940s vs the 1970s00:41:47 - Democracy, authoritarian drift, and rule of law00:44:17 - AI, productivity, and inflationary policy responses00:56:08 - Lyn’s views on Bitcoin, stablecoins, and crypto markets01:03:34 - Debate on the long term sustainability of crypto01:09:42 - Closing thoughts on power, money, and the macro outlookCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hr and 11 mins
  • SI396: Markets Look Calm… But Are They? ft. Rob Carver
    Apr 18 2026
    Today, Rob Carver joins us to reflect on a market environment that appears calm on the surface but feels increasingly fragile underneath. From oil market distortions and muted reactions to geopolitical risk to the steady resilience of equities, the conversation questions whether price action is telling the full story. Rob shares insights from his own performance, including why slower trend signals have recently dominated and why he is running lower risk despite positive returns. The discussion moves into portfolio construction, return stacking, and the growing role of ETFs, alongside a candid look at where complexity adds value in systematic investing and where it does not.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro & current market backdrop04:30 - Oil market dislocations and futures vs physical pricing10:00 - Equities hitting highs despite geopolitical tension13:30 - ETFs, fees, and structural shifts in investment vehicles17:00 - Trend following performance update and April results20:30 - Rob’s year-to-date and 12-month performance breakdown25:00 - Why slow trend signals outperformed27:30 - How to evaluate large CTA managers31:00 - Where PhDs add value in systematic investing43:00 - Signal weighting, crisis alpha, and portfolio construction52:00 - Return stacking and diversifying equities01:06:30 - Managed futures ETFs vs replication strategies01:18:00 - Final thoughts and wrap-upCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hr and 21 mins
  • TTU152: Where is the Open? ft. Toby Crabel
    Apr 15 2026
    Markets are not stable systems. They evolve, adapt, and quietly erode the edges traders rely on. In this episode, Toby Crabel reflects on decades of experience navigating that reality, from the early days of Opening Range Breakout strategies to today’s fragmented and highly competitive landscape. He explains why momentum behaves differently now, how liquidity has shifted across sessions, and why execution has become a defining edge. The conversation also explores the limits of AI, the persistence of technical principles, and the importance of adapting without overfitting. At its core, this is a discussion about humility, uncertainty, and staying relevant as markets change.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.Find out more about DUNN CapitalFollow Crabel Capital Management on LinkedIn.Episode Timestamps:00:00 - Markets are probabilistic and inherently uncertain01:40 - Introduction to Toby Crabel and his career03:01 - From tennis to trading and early market exposure06:10 - Opening range breakout and early momentum edge08:04 - Why momentum strategies have deteriorated over time14:21 - The disappearance of the “open” in modern markets17:53 - Are markets changing or just the participants20:34 - Liquidity events and large player behavior24:14 - The role and limits of technical analysis32:44 - Model decay and adapting systematic strategies39:17 - Execution as a primary source of edge40:40 - AI, automation, and the future of trading51:18 - Effort vs result and the meaning of volume56:56 - Are we entering a 1970s style macro regime?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hr and 5 mins
  • SI395: Finding Alpha in the Strait of Chaos ft. Andrew Beer
    Apr 11 2026
    Markets are currently being shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, rapid technological change, and shifting investor behavior. In this episode, Andrew and Niels explore how these forces are influencing trend following and systematic investing. They discuss recent market volatility, the impact of global conflict on asset prices, and why traditional diversification assumptions are being tested. A key focus is the evolving structure of the CTA industry, including the rise of ETFs and the debate between complexity and simplicity in generating alpha. The conversation also examines replication strategies, implementation costs, and whether simpler approaches may deliver more efficient and consistent outcomes over time.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:27 - Geopolitical uncertainty and parallels to past crises03:13 - Why this crisis feels different from previous ones04:24 - Ideology, negotiation, and unintended consequences06:16 - AI, technology, and the changing global landscape10:58 - Technology dependence and societal tradeoffs12:37 - Market environment and trend following conditions16:02 - CTA performance and the macro “do over” of 202621:11 - Traditional markets vs systematic strategies22:39 - Hedge fund losses and dispersion across strategies25:48 - CTA alpha, simplicity, and ETF performance32:42 - Complexity vs efficiency in portfolio construction39:40 - Hidden implementation costs in systematic trading52:21 - QIS strategies and the illusion of beta57:43 - Structural challenges in QIS products01:03:12 - Index construction, research, and innovation constraints01:08:47 - Fees, transparency, and real investor costs01:12:41 - Product evolution and the future of systematic investingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hr and 16 mins
  • OI21: The Hidden Edge in Markets No One Is Trading ft. Tom Babbedge
    Apr 8 2026
    What if the real edge in markets is not in adding more assets, but in choosing fundamentally different ones? In this episode, Moritz Siebert speaks with Tom Babbedge about why alternative commodity markets offer a distinct source of diversification and trend. They explore how structural supply and demand imbalances create persistent price moves, why many financial markets behave as one during stress, and how capacity constraints shape portfolio construction. The conversation also examines how markets are selected, how execution differs from traditional CTAs, and why understanding who trades a market may matter more than any backtest.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Tom on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction to the episode and guest02:04 - Why focus only on commodity markets03:59 - The myth of diversification through more markets05:01 - Structural differences within commodity markets06:22 - Why financial markets behave as one in crises07:57 - Capacity constraints and portfolio construction11:18 - Adding and removing markets from the portfolio13:28 - How to identify truly alternative markets16:40 - Trend quality vs trend quantity explained19:11 - Structural drivers behind commodity trends20:01 - Case study European carbon and trend persistence26:59 - Execution as an edge in systematic trading32:42 - Reducing trading costs through patience40:09 - Why investors allocate to alternative commodity strategiesCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    48 mins
  • SI394: The Quarter That Tested Every Trend Follower ft. Katy Kaminski & Harry Moore
    Apr 4 2026
    Markets rarely offer clarity when it matters most. In this episode, together with Katy Kaminski and Harry Moore, we reflect on a first quarter defined by sharp reversals, energy shocks, and rising dispersion across strategies. They explain how trend following adapted as leadership flipped across asset classes, and why results varied more than many expected. The conversation moves beyond performance to examine portfolio construction, from market selection and speed to the growing relevance of portable alpha. Along the way, they revisit periods of drawdown, investor behavior, and the role of liquidity in crisis environments, offering a grounded perspective on how systematic strategies respond when conditions change quickly.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Follow Harry on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and episode framing01:38 - Market backdrop and Q1 volatility07:29 - Trend following performance through Q109:36 - Diversification vs equities and bonds11:21 - Dispersion across managers explained14:32 - Trend vs non trend strategies18:40 - A month that tested every component of trend21:17 - Optimal market mix and research insights30:00 - Macro factors and what trend captures35:57 - Portable alpha and cash efficiency42:23 - Risks in portable alpha construction49:04 - Drawdowns and investor behavior53:37 - Why trend recovers after shocks01:00:51 - Measuring alpha in macro strategies01:06:51 - Geopolitics and future opportunitiesCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hr and 14 mins