Why the Treasury Yield Curve Is Uninverting in Mid 2026

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Why the Treasury Yield Curve Is Uninverting in Mid 2026

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The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, the longest stretch on record. But in June 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.37 percent, the 2-year at 3.66 percent, and the spread has flattened to near zero. Lucas and Luna unpack what an uninversion typically signals—and why this time might be different. They break down the mechanics: the Fed's rate cuts, the term premium, and what bond markets are pricing in for growth. Plus, a look at how the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.20 percent suggests inflation expectations remain anchored. Is an uninversion a buy signal or a warning? This episode digs into the data without the noise. #YieldCurve #Treasury #BondMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inversion #TermPremium #Economics #USEconomy #Investing #Macro #FOMC #Growth #Recession #Inflation #Breakeven #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

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