Alex Roepers of Atlantic Investment Management lays out two deeply cheap special situations: Dauch (DCH) and Nomad Foods (NOMD). In both, management is sending "dark arts" signals (an aggressive CEO payout struck well above the current price, heavy insider buying) that point to an inflection the market hasn't paid for yet. We dig into the $300M merger synergies at Dauch, the auto-cycle and leverage risk, the governance red flags, the private-label threat to Nomad's frozen-food brands, and whether the European discount on both is real or just doldrums.

This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Join Andrew, Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompts, and Ben Collins of AlphaSense for a webinar breaking down the modern AI stack for investors: where horizontal platforms, agentic workflows, and finance-specific tools each actually fit in a real research process. Recording June 16, live June 25. Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions

Disclosure: long DCH and NOMD

Chapters:

0:00 Two cheap special situations and the "dark arts" setup

1:10 Sponsor: AlphaSense and the AI-stack-for-investors webinar

2:29 Alex Roepers, Atlantic Investment Management

3:04 Dauch ($DCH): the GKN, Melrose and Dowlais backstory

7:05 Why Atlantic made $DCH a core position at ~$6

9:03 The governance knock: a company named after a sub-1% CEO

13:42 Dark arts: the PSU grant that only pays above $12

15:11 Underwriting the $300M merger synergies

18:13 Leverage, capital allocation and the path to buybacks

24:42 The auto cycle and why 5x free cash flow caps the downside

29:12 Nomad Foods ($NOMD): the frozen-food bull case

33:14 Nomad by the numbers: 5.5x earnings, 7% yield

35:39 The bear case: private label, Aldi and a new CEO

39:21 Would Martin Franklin ever sell?

41:22 Dividend or buyback at these levels?

43:00 Is Franklin distracted by APi Group?

45:27 The kitchen-sink reset and a fall investor day

47:37 "Addback city": cleaning up the earnings number

50:02 The European discount: real or imagined?

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Abivax posted maybe the best ulcerative colitis data anyone's seen, then crashed 60% on a cancer signal Adam May argues is statistical noise. We dig into whether $ABVX is now a mispriced takeout: the maintenance efficacy that beat Rinvoq, how the scary "seven cancer cases" collapse to two, the blackbox question, the Crohn's skew, and the part two safety data due within weeks. Then a quick look at Nectar (NKTR), its alopecia areata data, and the Eli Lilly lawsuit.

This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense, and specifically Andrew's upcoming AI webinar with them: breaking down the modern AI stack for investors with Dave Wang (Wall Street Prompts) and Ben Collins (AlphaSense). Goes live June 25. Register here.

Chapters:

00:00 Intro and disclosure (long ABVX and NKTR)

01:03 Sponsor: AlphaSense AI webinar for investors

02:33 The biotech "GOAT" returns

03:33 Abivax setup: induction vs maintenance, the stakes

06:38 The bar: clinical remission and Rinvoq

10:14 Blowout maintenance data, and endoscopic remission that doubles Rinvoq

14:23 The data drops, then a 60% crash

16:31 The cancer scare, taken apart case by case

24:45 Why it's statistical noise: mechanism, clustering, base rates

28:50 Adverse-event capture and the phase 2 safety database

33:57 Bear case: hasn't the market had time to digest this?

38:00 Blackbox or no blackbox, and does it matter at $100

40:32 The Crohn's readout and the skew

45:36 M&A: timing, the new CCO, what Adam wants them to do

47:38 Part two safety data due within weeks

54:46 The cash question: secondary vs sale

57:49 Nectar: strong data, then an unexplained selloff

59:54 The Eli Lilly lawsuit and the jury-trial angle

01:03:26 Ox40 read-through and the Q32 Bio overhang

01:06:07 Most mispriced pick, targets, and the CEO's Cincor parallel

01:12:10 Wrap

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Disclosure: Long ABVX and NKTR

Amadeus $AMS is down roughly 25% because the market lumped it in with the SaaS names AI is supposed to gut. Team Amadeus, Pershing Square Challenge finalists, argue it's the opposite: a deterministic, mission-critical monopoly that AI makes more valuable, not less. We dig into the 50-year-old systems that planes literally can't take off without, why the GDS is the wrong job for an LLM, the Sabre and Constellation Software angle, and what the stock is actually worth.

Full pitch deck (~75 pages): https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/5bwef8mz2kplx2sub598w/PSC_AMS_LONG_vSent.pdf?rlkey=x5g0v7t1qk8hpg00ewix95hn3&st=rq9nzl4h&dl=0

This episode is brought to you by Trata. Trata is two investors who get on an anonymized call and talk through the real issues in a stock, bull-to-bull, bear-to-bear, or just getting up to speed. If you like this podcast, you'll like Trata. Check it out at trata.com

Chapters:

00:00 Why Amadeus landed on my radar

01:00 Sponsor: Trata

02:39 Meet Team Amadeus (Pershing Square Challenge finalists)

05:20 What Amadeus actually does: the toll booth on global travel

09:07 The AI fear that broke the stock

11:13 Is it actually cheap? Valuation and stock comp

15:26 Why Amadeus tops the AI-risk matrix

16:32 Air IT Solutions: the SAP of airlines

22:59 The Microsoft AI director who bet against AI eating this

24:15 Tech-debt pushback and the JFK field trip

29:09 Sabre, Constellation Software, and the monopoly complaint

33:16 How Amadeus won share during COVID

34:21 The air-distribution network effect

35:22 Why LLMs are the wrong tool for the GDS

39:50 The $1B biometrics acquisition

43:03 Google, Gemini, and the uptime math

45:47 Fair value and the bull case nobody's pricing

49:01 Amadeus as an AI beneficiary

51:02 Closing thoughts

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/