Britain is set for its fifth prime minister in four years following the resignation of Keir Starmer. With Andy Burnham destined to land the top job in Downing Street, we discuss what impact the new leader could have on the pound and gilt markets.

The dollar, meanwhile, has surged higher since the Federal Reserve’s June monetary policy meeting, the first since the appointment for Kevin Warsh as the new FOMC chair. What do our analysts make of the hawkish announcement?

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Despite some encouraging signs of progress, the Iran war continues to drag on without a clear end in sight. Investors are exhibiting an element of headline fatigue, as the sort of headlines that would have previously been greeted with wild gyrations in markets are now being either roundly ignored or treated with caution. EUR/USD has subsequently traded within a tight range - we discuss what could trigger a breakout.

This month is also a big month in the UK. The Bank of England looks set to hold policy steady, but the real focus will be on the Makerfield by-election. A victory for Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham could clear his path to Number 10. But what does this mean for the pound and gilts?

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The era of central bank consensus appears to be over. In this episode of FX Talk, we dive into a hectic week of monetary policy decisions that saw the "Big Three" hold rates steady while revealing deep internal fractures.

We start with the Federal Reserve, where an 8-4 split marks the most divided FOMC in decades. As Kevin Warsh prepares to take center stage, we analyse whether his tenure will prioritise balance sheet action over traditional rate hikes.

Across the pond, the ECB finds itself in a stagflationary trap; caught between a June hike and the economic fallout of the conflict in Iran. Finally, we look at the Bank of England, where a high-profile dissent from Chief Economist Huw Pill suggests the UK may soon hike rates to combat stubborn inflationary pressures. As the transatlantic policy gap widens, the roadmap for FX volatility in 2026 is being rewritten.

Join us as we decode the dissent and what it means for your global exposure!

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