Britain is set for its fifth prime minister in four years following the resignation of Keir Starmer. With Andy Burnham destined to land the top job in Downing Street, we discuss what impact the new leader could have on the pound and gilt markets.

The dollar, meanwhile, has surged higher since the Federal Reserve’s June monetary policy meeting, the first since the appointment for Kevin Warsh as the new FOMC chair. What do our analysts make of the hawkish announcement?

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Despite some encouraging signs of progress, the Iran war continues to drag on without a clear end in sight. Investors are exhibiting an element of headline fatigue, as the sort of headlines that would have previously been greeted with wild gyrations in markets are now being either roundly ignored or treated with caution. EUR/USD has subsequently traded within a tight range - we discuss what could trigger a breakout.

This month is also a big month in the UK. The Bank of England looks set to hold policy steady, but the real focus will be on the Makerfield by-election. A victory for Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham could clear his path to Number 10. But what does this mean for the pound and gilts?

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The era of central bank consensus appears to be over. In this episode of FX Talk, we dive into a hectic week of monetary policy decisions that saw the "Big Three" hold rates steady while revealing deep internal fractures.

We start with the Federal Reserve, where an 8-4 split marks the most divided FOMC in decades. As Kevin Warsh prepares to take center stage, we analyse whether his tenure will prioritise balance sheet action over traditional rate hikes.

Across the pond, the ECB finds itself in a stagflationary trap; caught between a June hike and the economic fallout of the conflict in Iran. Finally, we look at the Bank of England, where a high-profile dissent from Chief Economist Huw Pill suggests the UK may soon hike rates to combat stubborn inflationary pressures. As the transatlantic policy gap widens, the roadmap for FX volatility in 2026 is being rewritten.

Join us as we decode the dissent and what it means for your global exposure!

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Markets are breathing a collective sigh of relief following the news of an eleventh hour ceasefire between the US and Iran. But is this the beginning of a genuine off-ramp, or just a brief intermission before the next act?

In this week's episode, we dig into what the ceasefire actually means for markets: will the US dollar sell-off continue? Does the move lower in oil prices have more room to run? How could the news impact global growth and inflation? And what could it mean for central bank rates? Have a listen to find out our thoughts on these and more!

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SPECIAL GUEST ALERT.

We are delighted to be joined on today’s episode by Simon French - Chief Economist and Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, and regular columnist at The Times.

On today’s episode, we unpack the implications of the ongoing war in Iran. How could the volatility in global oil prices impact inflation, and how might central banks around the world respond to the shock?

Simon also discusses the deeper inflationary and growth problem in the UK associated with a rationing of factors of production. What policies are exacerbating Britain’s inflation problem? Why are rising global energy prices hitting the UK harder than its peers? And what can be done to address the issue?

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Global trade has been thrown into fresh chaos following last week’s Supreme Court ruling, which deemed President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs to be illegal. The reaction in financial markets has been relatively calm so far, as not only were investors prepared for the verdict, but they fully expected the president to pursue alternative methods to achieve his trade objectives.

The future of ECB President Lagarde has also been thrown in doubt following a FT report released last week, which suggested that she could be considering leaving her post before the end of her term. Meanwhile, sterling has faced headwinds from UK political uncertainty and rising expectations that the Bank of England will slash rates again at its next meeting in March.

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Following months of speculation, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh has been named as the next chair of the FOMC - how could his appointment impact US rates, Fed autonomy and the dollar? Meanwhile, the massive supermajority victory for Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi at the weekend’s election has triggered a sharp rebound in the yen - what has instigated the move?

We also discuss the implications of the strong January nonfarm payrolls report. What does the data mean for the US labour market and the path of US rates?

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The Sell America trade returned with a vengeance last week after President Trump threatened eight European countries with fresh tariffs for their stance over Greenland. While his entirely predictable U-turn was greeted positively by equities and bond markets, the dollar has continued to lose ground, why?

The Japanese yen has rallied sharply amid mounting speculation of a rare coordinated intervention from US and Japanese authorities to prop up the yen. Meanwhile, the race to be named the next Fed chair is hotting up, with a surprise candidate now seemingly the front runner.

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