Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may look arbitrary, but the data tells a deeper story. Ryan and Mike break down how leverage, credit, stablecoins, DeFi loans, miners, and Strategy drive crypto’s recurring booms and busts, and whether one final domino still needs to fall.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

5:21 Bitcoin’s Capital Base

15:00 Leverage Drives the Premium

20:07 Stablecoins and VC Flow

23:08 On-Chain Loan Cycles

26:08 Perps and Treasury Leverage

32:14 Deleveraging and Hidden Risks

34:29 Miner Capitulation

37:12 Why Four Years?

40:08 ETH and Solana Positioning

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin may be in the buy zone, but the demand signal still looks weak. David and Mike debate whether the bottom is already in, why ETF outflows and muted buyer interest matter, what realized losses and realized cap are signaling, and whether BTC needs one more painful reset before the next real opportunity.

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📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE
https://bankless.cc/Galaxy

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🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE
https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-yt
https://thedefireport.io/friends
https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/
https://x.com/the_defi_report
https://x.com/JustDeauIt

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
2:01 Pain, Patience, & Cycles
5:03 Shallower Drawdowns?
7:22 ETF Flows and Demand
9:34 Saylor’s Canary
15:32 Realized Losses Review
23:00 Bitcoin Versus Nasdaq
25:23 AI Bubble Meets Crypto
28:37 Oil, War, & Inflation
33:25 Hyperliquid’s Market Split
38:28 $LIT & $WLD Momentum
40:42 Pro Portfolio Playbook

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Has Bitcoin entered the buy zone, or is one final flush still ahead? Mike and Ryan break down why BTC under $67K looks attractive for long-term buyers, what realized losses and top-buyer cohorts reveal about seller exhaustion, and how AI weakness, inflation, and rising odds of Fed hikes could shape the next major move.

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📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE
https://bankless.cc/Galaxy

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🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE
https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-yt
https://thedefireport.io/friends
https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/
https://x.com/the_defi_report
https://x.com/JustDeauIt

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
1:39 False Bull Flag Revisited
5:32 Tracking Deep Value Signals
11:04 Strategy Fear & Unwind
18:09 Who Is Buying Bitcoin?
22:15 Signs of Seller Exhaustion
25:08 Bitcoin Leads the Nasdaq
26:33 AI Boom Or Bust
35:58 Macro Risks & Inflation
43:20 TDR Portfolio Strategy
48:50 Buying Bitcoin Under 67K

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.