Bitcoin is down 47% from the highs, but Mike says the real “fat pitch” still hasn’t arrived.

Mike and Ryan break down where BTC could actually bottom using realized price, the 200-week moving average, and deep value onchain signals, plus why oil, Iran, rates, and recession risk still matter more than most crypto investors think.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:16 Buffett's Market Perspective

4:45 Galaxy One Staking Launch

6:31 War's Impact on Markets

11:07 Energy Crisis Analysis

14:03 Fed Rate Predictions

18:11 Speculating on Trump's Announcement

24:50 Bitcoin Price Analysis

28:14 Deep Value & Market Strategy

32:53 Altcoins & Crypto Equities

35:04 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

The Nasdaq just broke its 200-day moving average. In 2022, that was the signal for a 35% collapse. Is history repeating?

Mike and Ryan dive into the "Complacency Trap," why the war in Iran is actually a strategic play for China’s oil, and the onchain data suggesting Bitcoin hasn't hit "Deep Value" yet. They also break down the 2022 analog, the 6.4% mortgage rate reality, and why the "Trump Prize" won't save the markets this time.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:43 Market Complacency & The War in Iran

7:45 Geopolitical Implications of Oil

10:04 The US-China Connection

13:26 Lessons from 2022

16:44 On-Chain Bitcoin Insights

22:14 Risk Asset Market Psychology

26:33 ETF Inflows and Market Health

28:54 Bitcoin Price Targets

32:44 TDR Portfolio Update

33:56 Patience in Bear Markets

36:28 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin is ripping while stocks and gold stall, and Michael Saylor just dropped billions into BTC. So… is this a real regime shift or just another 2022-style fake rally?

Ryan and Mike break down the macro, why liquidity is quietly tightening, how Saylor’s new capital machine is changing market structure, and why this rally may not be as bullish as it looks.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:36 Bitcoin's Performance Amid Geopolitical Conflict

4:24 Global Liquidity and Its Implications

8:40 Inflation and Federal Reserve Challenges

12:38 Bitcoin Market Structure Analysis

19:23 Michael Saylor's Strategic Purchases

27:57 Exploring Hype and Market Trends

35:33 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Mike and Ryan re-underwrite the Bitcoin thesis with a full network health check: hash rate, miner incentives, active addresses, ETF adoption, treasury firms, and BTC’s performance vs Nasdaq and gold. They also dig into the biggest risks ahead, including security budget pressure, miner concentration, and quantum computing, before explaining why they still view Bitcoin as a core portfolio asset this cycle.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:31 Institutional Insights on Bitcoin

4:24 Mining & Network Security

8:08 Fees & Block Rewards

11:20 Security Budget Risks

14:25 The Future of Mining

15:57 Address Trends & Activity

22:48 Institutional Adoption Surge

25:01 Treasury Firms & Bitcoin

28:03 Bitcoin vs. Other Assets

30:51 Quantum Computing Concerns

33:34 The Future of Bitcoin

36:43 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s cycle awareness signals now that BTC has hit “fair value.” Using long-term holder supply in profit, MVRV, and the 200-week moving average, they compare today’s setup to the 2018 and 2022 bear markets and show how much returns changed when investors waited for “deep value.” Then they get practical on portfolio management: deploy now vs wait, how much cash to keep, and why Mike just made a second BTC buy while staying ready for a potential $50K to $55K scare.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:24 The Tension of Deployment

3:46 Market Positioning Updates

4:24 Cycle Awareness Indicators

7:17 The Impact of Fair vs. Deep Value

11:44 Market Value to Realized Value

15:49 Understanding the 200-Week Moving Average

18:48 Fair Value vs. Deep Value

20:21 Strategy for Navigating Uncertainty

24:26 Timing & Expectations for Deep Value

28:35 Managing Deployment Tensions

33:17 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Mike and Ryan unpack why “uncertainty” is starting to feel structural across markets: the Supreme Court tariff ruling, Trump’s workaround playbook, and what it all means for capital flows and bonds. Then they dig into the viral Citrini AI scenario and why the real signal is not the report itself, but Wall Street’s reaction and the widening range of outcomes. Finally, they run a Bitcoin market structure check, from long term holder behavior and ETF flows to miner stress, and explain why they’re still heavy cash and what would need to happen to trigger the next fat pitch.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:49 Bitcoin Market Structure Insights

8:26 Supreme Court Tariff Decisions

12:20 Impact on the Bond Market

12:31 AI & Investor Psychology

20:30 Structural Uncertainty in the Market

26:14 Bitcoin Market Structure Update

35:44 Closing Thoughts & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Mike and Ryan break down the bond market signals that are starting to flash risk off: a standout 30 year Treasury auction, falling real yields, and a 2 year yield below the Fed funds rate. They map today’s narrowing stock market breadth and Mag7 dispersion to the early stages of the dot com setup, then steel man the bull case with AI capex, bigger tax refunds, and potential tariff stimulus. Finally, they explain why Bitcoin may be a leading liquidity indicator for TradFi and walk through the portfolio positioning, including the heavy cash stance and what would trigger the next fat pitch.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
3:14 Analyzing the Bond Market Signals
6:01 The Growth & Inflation Narrative
9:38 Transitioning to Risk-Off Assets
12:57 Equities: Are We in a Tech Bubble?
15:13 Comparing Today to the Dot-Com Era
19:10 Understanding Market Catalysts
22:39 The Bull Case for AI Stocks
26:52 Tax Refunds & Economic Impacts
29:57 Consumer Behavior & Market Trends
33:04 Portfolio Adjustments & Future Outlook
35:24 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $65K fair value and whether last week’s capitulation was the long-awaited fat pitch. They compare this cycle to 2018 and 2022, explain why the selloff has accelerated faster than past bears, and unpack what Mike means when he says spot markets are “tangled.” With 40% of supply held above $78K and heavy dip buying at $84K, they explore the risk of a relief rally into resistance and the potential for one more leg down toward the 200-week moving average. They close with details on TDR’s first deployment of the bear market, deep value targets, and how they’re scaling into positions while keeping dry powder ready.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:09 Market Sentiment Shifts

3:28 Comparing Past Cycles

6:13 First Purchase of the Bear Market

7:49 Forced Selling & Market Reactions

12:50 Analyzing Market Structure

17:29 Understanding New Market Psychology

21:52 TDR's Strategic Allocation

27:47 Updates on the Watch List

31:28 Triggers for Altcoin Deployments

32:49 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.