Episodes

  • Why US Job Openings Stay High Despite Cooling Payrolls

    Why US Job Openings Stay High Despite Cooling Payrolls
    Jul 2 2026
    In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into a paradox in the mid-2026 US labor market: payrolls growth slowed to just 57,000 in June, yet JOLTS job openings actually ticked up to 7.6 million. They explore what's driving the disconnect—including a rise in long-term vacancies in healthcare and hospitality, the impact of the World Cup adding 40,000 temporary jobs, and falling labor force participation. Lucas explains the structural shift in hiring frictions—companies wanting perfect candidates rather than warm bodies—and why the Fed can't ignore the wage pressure this creates even as headline job gains weaken. Luna questions whether the 'Great Resignation' has simply become the 'Great Holdout'. The episode closes with a reflection on whether the labor market is cooling or just morphing. #USJobs #JOLTS #Payrolls #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #Employment #EconomicData #WageGrowth #LaborForceParticipation #WorldCup #Healthcare #Hospitality #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #USEconomy #JobOpenings #HiringSlowdown Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 mins
  • Why US Housing Starts Are Stalling Despite Strong Demand

    Why US Housing Starts Are Stalling Despite Strong Demand
    Jul 2 2026
    In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine the odd disconnect in America's housing market in mid-2026: housing starts have fallen to an annualized 1.28 million units, down 12% from a year ago, even as household formation stays strong and the national vacancy rate sits near a 40-year low. They dig into three specific forces behind the stall—sticky construction financing costs tied to the 4.47% ten-year yield, a severe shortage of skilled labor in states like Texas and Florida, and a wave of local zoning reform battles that are moving too slowly to boost supply. Lucas points to a surprising bright spot: manufactured housing shipments are up 9% year-over-year as builders find workarounds. The conversation also explores what this means for rent inflation and the Fed's next move. If you've wondered why buying a home feels harder than the macro data suggests, this episode offers a grounded explanation. #HousingStarts #USEconomy #HousingMarket #Construction #FederalReserve #TreasuryYield #ZoningReform #ManufacturedHousing #SkilledLabor #RentInflation #HouseholdFormation #TenYearYield #TexasHousing #FloridaHousing #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #HousingCrisis Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 mins
  • Why the US Dollar Is Weakening in Mid 2026

    Why the US Dollar Is Weakening in Mid 2026
    Jul 1 2026
    The US dollar has dropped 5% since April 2026, puzzling many given the economy is still growing. Lucas and Luna dig into the data: the Fed cutting rates while other central banks hold, a narrowing interest rate differential, and a shift in global reserve demand. They also look at how a weaker dollar is boosting exports and multinational earnings, and why this might be a good thing for the stock market. Plus, a listener-supported model keeps the show ad-free. #USDollar #FederalReserve #InterestRates #CurrencyMarkets #GDPGrowth #ExportEconomy #MultinationalEarnings #S&P500 #CentralBanks #DollarIndex #EconomicCycle #Inflation #TradeBalance #InvestorStrategy #Macroeconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 mins
  • Why US Business Investment Is Surging in Mid 2026

    Why US Business Investment Is Surging in Mid 2026
    Jul 1 2026
    In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine a surprising divergence in the American economy: while consumer confidence is plunging and housing starts are stalling, nonresidential fixed investment is surging at a double-digit pace. They drill into the latest GDP data, which shows real GDP growth accelerating to 2.1 percent annualized in Q1 2026, driven largely by spending on factories, data centers, and equipment. Lucas breaks down how the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act incentives are still fueling a construction boom in manufacturing and clean energy, even as consumer spending softens. Luna questions whether this investment cycle can sustain itself without stronger household demand. They also touch on the JOLTS data showing 7.6 million job openings, suggesting businesses are still hiring aggressively despite higher borrowing costs. The episode highlights the tension between a strong investment cycle and a cautious consumer, and what that means for the second half of the year. Specific reference is made to the S&P 500 sitting at 7,499 and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.42 percent. #BusinessInvestment #GDP #NonresidentialFixedInvestment #CHIPSAct #InflationReductionAct #ManufacturingBoom #ConstructionSpending #DataCenters #FactoryConstruction #EconomicDivergence #ConsumerConfidence #JOLTS #JobOpenings #InterestRates #TreasuryYield #SOFR #USEconomy #FexingoBusiness Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 mins
  • Why the US Dollar Is Weakening Despite a Strong Economy in 2026

    Why the US Dollar Is Weakening Despite a Strong Economy in 2026
    Jun 30 2026
    The US dollar has been sliding against major currencies even as GDP grows at 2.1 percent and unemployment holds at 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox: why a strong economy is actually hurting the greenback. They explain how the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, narrowing interest rate differentials with Europe and Japan, and a shift in global reserve preferences are driving the dollar lower. The episode centers on the dollar index falling from 106 to 99 over the past year, and what that means for import prices, corporate earnings, and inflation. They also discuss how a weaker dollar might boost exports but complicate the Fed's fight against sticky core PCE inflation at 3.4 percent. A must-listen for anyone tracking currency markets or macroeconomic trends. #USDollar #CurrencyMarkets #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #CorePCE #EconomicGrowth #GDP #Exports #Imports #DollarIndex #MonetaryPolicy #GlobalEconomy #CentralBanks #ForeignExchange #Macroeconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 mins
  • Why the Fed Is Stuck Between Sticky Inflation and a Cooling Labor Market

    Why the Fed Is Stuck Between Sticky Inflation and a Cooling Labor Market
    Jun 30 2026
    The Federal Reserve is in a bind as mid-2026 arrives. Core PCE inflation hit 3.4 percent in May, the highest since October 2023, yet the unemployment rate is stuck at 4.3 percent and job openings rebounded sharply in April to 7.6 million. Lucas and Luna unpack why the Fed can't cut rates despite a slowing economy, drawing on the latest data and a historical comparison to the 1970s stop-go cycle. They also discuss why consumers are feeling the squeeze even as the headline GDP number looks solid. A concrete look at the trade-offs facing Jerome Powell and the FOMC. #FederalReserve #Inflation #CorePCE #Unemployment #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #JeromePowell #FOMC #StopGoCycle #1970sInflation #LaborMarket #JOLTS #JobOpenings #ConsumerSpending #RealGDP #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 mins
  • Why US Labor Force Participation Is Stuck Below 63 Percent

    Why US Labor Force Participation Is Stuck Below 63 Percent
    Jun 29 2026
    The US unemployment rate is at 4.3 percent and job openings just jumped to 7.6 million, yet the prime-age labor force participation rate has been stuck below 63 percent since early 2025. Lucas and Luna dig into the specific demographics driving the stall — prime-age men aged 25-54 who have left the workforce permanently, women whose recovery has plateaued, and the structural mismatch between available jobs and available workers. They cite the latest JOLTS data from April 2026 and the May 2026 nonfarm payrolls report, and connect the participation puzzle to why wage growth is cooling even with low unemployment. The episode zooms in on one overlooked number: the participation rate for prime-age men is still a full percentage point below its pre-pandemic peak, and it's been flat for 18 months. #LaborForceParticipation #PrimeAgeWorkers #USLaborMarket #JOLTS #NonfarmPayrolls #WageGrowth #StructuralUnemployment #Demographics #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #USEconomy #FedPolicy #LaborSupply #RetirementWave #DisabilityInsurance #ChildcareCosts Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 mins
  • Why the Treasury Yield Curve Is Uninverting in Mid 2026

    Why the Treasury Yield Curve Is Uninverting in Mid 2026
    Jun 29 2026
    The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, the longest stretch on record. But in June 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.37 percent, the 2-year at 3.66 percent, and the spread has flattened to near zero. Lucas and Luna unpack what an uninversion typically signals—and why this time might be different. They break down the mechanics: the Fed's rate cuts, the term premium, and what bond markets are pricing in for growth. Plus, a look at how the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.20 percent suggests inflation expectations remain anchored. Is an uninversion a buy signal or a warning? This episode digs into the data without the noise. #YieldCurve #Treasury #BondMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inversion #TermPremium #Economics #USEconomy #Investing #Macro #FOMC #Growth #Recession #Inflation #Breakeven #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 mins